Population Scenarios to Year 2015 for the North East Health District: A System Dynamics Approach

Population Scenarios to Year 2015 for the North East Health District:
A System Dynamics Approach

Nipawin - May 21, 2001 - by: Mario deSantis, Dottore, M.Sc., M.Sc., and James deSantis, B.Adm., M.B.A.

"No model can ever be verified or validated. Why? Because all models are wrong"--John D. Sterman

confidence
interval
The reason for this population study for the North East Health District (NEHD) is to show

Health Services Utilization and Research Commission (HSURC) and our social researchers

the need for a System Dynamics approach to simulate population growth, rather than continue

with traditional forecasting techniques which fail to identify causation and interconnectedness

among the many relevant phenomena. Yet, these traditional forecasting techniques are assumed

to be accurate within a given 'confidence interval.' Instead, the developed System Dynamics

population model is a reasonable representation of the future behaviour of the NEHD's

population; and this model can be easily enhanced as its understanding is shared with

concerned parties and new insights are developed⁽¹⁾.

causes
The population models developed by HSURC do not account for the specific causes

affecting the population projections between the years 2000 and 2015, and in fact the

HSURC's methodology makes use of many manipulated ratios. For instance, HSURC

states that

"to account for migration and mortality, we calculated a "population change" ratio by dividing the number of individuals in a particular age group in 2000 by the number of individuals in the age group five years younger in 1995 (i.e., number in 10-14 age group in 2000/number in 5-9 age group in 1995)⁽²⁾

separate
population
" Further, the HSURC's methodology does not include a separate population projection for

Registered Indians, and in fact they state

available
data

"although Registered Indians were included in overall forecasts, separate projections were not calculated for this group because the available data cover Registered Indians only (rather than the entire aboriginal population) and are of poor quality⁽³⁾

In this regard, John Sterman, Professor at the Sloan School/MIT, writes

judgment

"omitting structures or variables known to be important because numerical data are unavailable is actually less scientific and less accurate than using your best judgment to estimate their values⁽⁴⁾."

spin off
This population study for the NEHD is a spin off of a recent research conducted by James

deSantis⁽⁵⁾ and as a consequence we are not going to provide the descriptive documentation.

However, the results of this study are provided in a tabular and accountable format and the

authors can be contacted at any time for any clarification.

------------References/endnotes:

Note: only a limited number of tables have been included

1.
-
-
Understanding Population Growth of Saskatchewan Registered Indians: A System Dynamics Approach, by James F. De Santis, May 2001, College of Business and Public Administration, University of North Dakota, Grand Forks, 9-12.

2.
-
Planning for Saskatchewan's Future: population and health services projections to 2015. Methods Health Services Utilization and Research Commission of Saskatchewan, Spring 2001

3.
-
-
Saskatchewan in 2015: Population, health service levels to remain stable provincially, vary by health district, News Releases, HSURC, March 22, 2001 http://www.hsurc.sk.ca/news_releases.php3?nid=82&nsection=2

4.
-
Business Dynamics, John D. Sterman, McGraw-Hill, 2000, page 854 http://www.mhhe.com/sterman

5.
-
-
Understanding Population Growth of Saskatchewan Registered Indians: A System Dynamics Approach, by James F. De Santis, May 2001, College of Business and Public Administration, University of North Dakota, Grand Forks

Population Scenarios to Year 2015 for the North East Health District: A System Dynamics Approach


Nipawin - May 21, 2001 - by: Mario deSantis, Dottore, M.Sc., M.Sc., and James deSantis, B.Adm., M.B.A.

	"No model can ever be verified or validated. Why? Because all models are wrong"--John D. Sterman

confidence interval	The reason for this population study for the North East Health District (NEHD) is to show
	Health Services Utilization and Research Commission (HSURC) and our social researchers
	the need for a System Dynamics approach to simulate population growth, rather than continue
	with traditional forecasting techniques which fail to identify causation and interconnectedness
	among the many relevant phenomena. Yet, these traditional forecasting techniques are assumed
	to be accurate within a given 'confidence interval.' Instead, the developed System Dynamics
	population model is a reasonable representation of the future behaviour of the NEHD's
	population; and this model can be easily enhanced as its understanding is shared with
	concerned parties and new insights are developed⁽¹⁾.



causes	The population models developed by HSURC do not account for the specific causes
	affecting the population projections between the years 2000 and 2015, and in fact the
	HSURC's methodology makes use of many manipulated ratios. For instance, HSURC
	states that
	"to account for migration and mortality, we calculated a "population change" ratio by dividing the number of individuals in a particular age group in 2000 by the number of individuals in the age group five years younger in 1995 (i.e., number in 10-14 age group in 2000/number in 5-9 age group in 1995)⁽²⁾
separate population	" Further, the HSURC's methodology does not include a separate population projection for
separate population	Registered Indians, and in fact they state
available data	"although Registered Indians were included in overall forecasts, separate projections were not calculated for this group because the available data cover Registered Indians only (rather than the entire aboriginal population) and are of poor quality⁽³⁾
	In this regard, John Sterman, Professor at the Sloan School/MIT, writes
judgment	"omitting structures or variables known to be important because numerical data are unavailable is actually less scientific and less accurate than using your best judgment to estimate their values⁽⁴⁾."



spin off	This population study for the NEHD is a spin off of a recent research conducted by James
	deSantis⁽⁵⁾ and as a consequence we are not going to provide the descriptive documentation.
	However, the results of this study are provided in a tabular and accountable format and the
	authors can be contacted at any time for any clarification.



------------References/endnotes:

	Note: only a limited number of tables have been included

1. - -	Understanding Population Growth of Saskatchewan Registered Indians: A System Dynamics Approach, by James F. De Santis, May 2001, College of Business and Public Administration, University of North Dakota, Grand Forks, 9-12.

2. -	Planning for Saskatchewan's Future: population and health services projections to 2015. Methods Health Services Utilization and Research Commission of Saskatchewan, Spring 2001

3. - -	Saskatchewan in 2015: Population, health service levels to remain stable provincially, vary by health district, News Releases, HSURC, March 22, 2001 http://www.hsurc.sk.ca/news_releases.php3?nid=82&nsection=2

4. -	Business Dynamics, John D. Sterman, McGraw-Hill, 2000, page 854 http://www.mhhe.com/sterman

5. - -	Understanding Population Growth of Saskatchewan Registered Indians: A System Dynamics Approach, by James F. De Santis, May 2001, College of Business and Public Administration, University of North Dakota, Grand Forks