Elderly Population Scenarios for North East Health District: Modeling is not an exact science but an iterative and reflect effort

Elderly Population Scenarios for North East Health District:
Modeling is not an exact science but an iterative and reflect effort

Nipawin - May 28, 2001 - By: Mario deSantis and reviewed by James deSantis

regression
analysis
In 1995, realizing that Saskatchewan Health was using uncommunicative research to direct

health reform I wrote the paper "A Model for Forecasting the Elderly Populations of

Saskatchewan Health District Boards: Working Example for Prairie West Health District⁽¹⁾."

In this paper, I used the simple regression analysis method to forecast the elderly

population for the Prairie West Health District, and the rationale for using this method

was two fold; firstly, I didn't know any better method, and secondly, I wanted to use a

method which could readily be understood and used by anybody with a bit of knowledge

in spreadsheet programming.

evidence
based
Today we have the System Dynamics methodology to model complex changing systems⁽²⁾;

however, our research institutions have been reluctant to abandon the highly manipulative

tools of "evidence based statistical analysis⁽³⁾" and have continued with their protective

fashion, covering up important assumptions, using data selectively to support their

prejudices, and acting like an oracle⁽⁴⁾⁽⁵⁾.

not an
exact
science
Modeling population projections is not an exact science but an iterative and reflective

effort shared by all the concerned parties. Today, as I reflect on the population study

for the North East Health District, I understand the importance to know a better

projection for the future elderly population of the North East Health District for

health planning.

one year
Therefore, I have the further insight to consider age grouping of one year rather than

five years for people with age over sixty-four. Sheena MacRae, Information Analyst

with Saskatchewan Health, provided me with the additional information I required for

this elderly population scenarios for the NEHD district and the results have been tabulated.

------------References/endnotes:

1.
-
A Model for Forecasting the Elderly Populations of Saskatchewan Health District Boards by Mario deSantis, February 1995 http://www3.sk.sympatico.ca/desam/paper-popmodel-regr.htm

2.
System Dynamics Society http://www.albany.edu/cpr/sds/

3.
If the facts don't fit the theory, change the facts'--quote by Albert Einstein

4.
-
Business Dynamics, John D. Sterman, section 'Protective versus Reflective Modelling,' page 858 http://www.mhhe.com/business/opsci/sterman/

5.
-
The incredible abuse of Saskatchewan No-Fault insurance, by Mario deSantis and reviewed by James deSantis, May 28, 2000

Elderly Population Scenarios for North East Health District: Modeling is not an exact science but an iterative and reflect effort



Nipawin - May 28, 2001 - By: Mario deSantis and reviewed by James deSantis

regression analysis	In 1995, realizing that Saskatchewan Health was using uncommunicative research to direct
	health reform I wrote the paper "A Model for Forecasting the Elderly Populations of
	Saskatchewan Health District Boards: Working Example for Prairie West Health District⁽¹⁾."
	In this paper, I used the simple regression analysis method to forecast the elderly
	population for the Prairie West Health District, and the rationale for using this method
	was two fold; firstly, I didn't know any better method, and secondly, I wanted to use a
	method which could readily be understood and used by anybody with a bit of knowledge
	in spreadsheet programming.

evidence based	Today we have the System Dynamics methodology to model complex changing systems⁽²⁾;
	however, our research institutions have been reluctant to abandon the highly manipulative
	tools of "evidence based statistical analysis⁽³⁾" and have continued with their protective
	fashion, covering up important assumptions, using data selectively to support their
	prejudices, and acting like an oracle⁽⁴⁾⁽⁵⁾.

not an exact science	Modeling population projections is not an exact science but an iterative and reflective
	effort shared by all the concerned parties. Today, as I reflect on the population study
	for the North East Health District, I understand the importance to know a better
	projection for the future elderly population of the North East Health District for
	health planning.

one year	Therefore, I have the further insight to consider age grouping of one year rather than
	five years for people with age over sixty-four. Sheena MacRae, Information Analyst
	with Saskatchewan Health, provided me with the additional information I required for
	this elderly population scenarios for the NEHD district and the results have been tabulated.

------------References/endnotes:

1. -	A Model for Forecasting the Elderly Populations of Saskatchewan Health District Boards by Mario deSantis, February 1995 http://www3.sk.sympatico.ca/desam/paper-popmodel-regr.htm

2.	System Dynamics Society http://www.albany.edu/cpr/sds/

3.	If the facts don't fit the theory, change the facts'--quote by Albert Einstein

4. -	Business Dynamics, John D. Sterman, section 'Protective versus Reflective Modelling,' page 858 http://www.mhhe.com/business/opsci/sterman/

5. -	The incredible abuse of Saskatchewan No-Fault insurance, by Mario deSantis and reviewed by James deSantis, May 28, 2000