Looking South and It Doesn't Look Good

FTLComm - Tisdale - December 11, 2000
To reduce heat loss and reduce any possible draught we have covered our windows with plastic and in this picture of the morning sunrise, taken from the kitchen table you can see in the picture a blurred section (left of centre) caused by a distortion in the plastic film. The temperature just before dawn was -25C but as the sun rose at 0900 precisely the temperature dipped to -28 with a steady eight to twelve knot wind from the West. This is as much of the morning I wanted to experience and from this location enjoying my hot chocolate and listening to Sheila Coles and Sheila Rogers on CBC.

In this morning's tip I hint that there is a possibility of civil disorder in the black areas of United States. This prediction comes from a report on CNN yesterday that indicated that in Jackson County in Florida the Afro-American turnout to vote was the highest in history and the instructions for the vote contradicted the ballot's format so that more than 19,000 voter's ballots were rejected because they followed the faulty instructions. These people and thousands like them in other states where the vote was solidly for Vice President Gore are not going to be pleased if the election is placed in George W. Bush's lap because votes in Florida were not counted.

The conditions that would contribute to serious civil disturbances would relate not just to this one elective factor but will only occur if the people have nothing to lose. The downturn in the US economic may result in layoffs and without much in the way of unemployment insurance and no medical care, the poor can quickly become unhappy. The first signs of trouble will come from prison riots. The US has an amazing number of people held in custody and there is an American tradition of putting down prison riots with extreme violence. One or two such events will begin a chain reaction and the new execution bent President will react with unprecedented violent reaction, it is his nature and since he is clinging to power he will use what ever power he has to establish some sort of legitimacy

This scenario could play out much quicker than expected and Bush would try to distract the attention from civil disorder and take international action of some kind to assert his authority and bolster the US's reduced world profile, as the Presidency will be viewed throughout the world as a hoax. In general, it is fair to expect very serious trouble if the US economy produces some unemployment and that trouble will come in those areas of the country with significant black or underclass populations. Florida is a virtual time bomb with the Cubans supporting Bush and the Blacks pro-Democrat things could get very ugly and the governments both state and federal, are likely to use force first.

The expression on the van tells the story of this sorry winter South of the border, it doesn't look good.