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drilling rig working north of Southey on Christmas Eve 2013

Join us in the adventure of 2014
Winnipeg, Manitoba
Tuesday, December 31, 2013
by:Timothy W. Shire

Remember how Pierre Trudeau once mused, quoting from Desiderata that “no doubt the universe is unfolding as it should,” so it is that time marches forward, each year giving us adventures and memories. In just a few hours we will welcome 2014, which may, or may not, be all that we expect, but most certainly, it will unfold in its own way, pretty much despite anything we do or say. Predictions, are just so much hot air, but hot air that gives us a chance to think through what we, on this little blue planet are facing.

For certain the random and perhaps not so random events of nature will continue to play a remarkable role in our lives. This past year the shocking Russian meteor strike, Calgary and High River’s flood, the super storm in the Philippines and the ice storm in Eastern Canada tell us that the events of we humans are often insignificant, compared to the forces of weather and the universe.

However, some things that happen are clearly not acts of God, but are the acts humans being what they are, fallible and sometimes taking risks that have consequences. In the case of Lac Magantic the loss of forty-seven people in a completely preventable disaster, just as the thirty-nine deaths in cross walks in Toronto this year, or chaos in Africa that takes the lives of thousands each and every year all of these and other events tell us that as a species we still have a long way to go.

This year’s predictions will focus on the acts people, or in some cases their failure to act.

The first thing we need to consider about 2014 is that it is not a year that should be fraught with trauma and crisis and I suppose we might say the same thing about all years. From the start, there is no reason why peace harmony and good times, can not be experienced by all, but as we know, we seem to be more than able to screw that up and smooth sailing is a dream rather than a reality. In general, I feel good about this new year, perhaps because of the number “4,” but also because this is a year in which the stage is being set for the year to come, not only in Canadian politics, but in a number of other affairs of mankind.

Climate change
While the naysayers who have denied the impending dangers of climate change are quickly coming around to joining the alarmist group, the world’s scientific community is subtly backing down on the rapid onset of change ,as we can see that things might be evolving far more gradually than expected. Severe weather events seems to be following a rather steady pattern and though some things like the number of tornadoes in November in the American south central area, are definitely up, the number of hurricanes this past year was lowest in some years. Do not be fooled by weather extremes. This cold winter does mean that global warming has reversed and that flood in Alberta last summer had been predicted for some time.

American financial confusion
There have been other times in the history of the United States when the Congress was controlled by one political party and the president by another. Certainly it made their government difficult to operate, but the present situation is by far the most problematic. The American Republican party is, and will continue to be, in the midst of a civil war between the “tea-party” and the conventional conservatives of the party. Less than fifty tea-party people sit in the house and without them, the Republicans do not have a majority. So what is in effect, is a coalition government, with the radical tea-party group, able to command and control the actions of the house. Their intense opposition to the medical care bill lead to the shut down of government in November, but this is for the most part, superficial.

Ultimately the American problem is precisely what the tea-party people worry about and that is the fiscal policies of the American government over the past fifty years, which has seen their deficit grow exponentially, to the point that even paying the interest on that debt, exceeds the revenue of the government. The United States of America is broke.

To keep things running they have been able to reduce interest rates to near zero and then print money that they refer to as “quantitative easing.” The process has created a situation where the American dollar and its value are completely unrelated to the true state of the country’s economy.

For some time the world used the gold standard as the reserve currency to use in international commerce, but since the second war, the American Dollar has replaced gold. Now world banks are diversifying, moving their cash reserves from the US Dollar to other currencies including the currencies of China, Japan, Canada, Australia and the Euro. Some economists believe that the shutdown of the US government in November triggered a series of events that will see the dollar’s collapse. I do not predict this will happen in 2014, but I concede that it is not if this happens, but when this eventual collapse occurs, is the only unknown.

During 2014 the US government should sort out its sequestering of the American military and the economy should function in a positive manner for the year as some of the recovery actually kicks in. This is the year of continued positive growth in the American economy.

Economic and financial woes

• Europe: The financial crisis triggered in 2008 are now well behind the European community and it is faced now with one major issue and a related secondary problem. The major issue is youth employment in every country, but by far, the worst in Spain and Greece. If this issue is not addressed they are looking at street riots in 2015.

• The second issue is that the promise of progress, for being part of the European Economic Union in eastern Europe, is not materializing. Though this seems like a formidable problem, look for gradual improvement in 2014 as Germany realizes that the whole future of Europe hinges on mutual improvement.
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• China: There is simply no possibility that this huge country can actually make headway dealing with corruption, the whole set up is based on it and without corruption, the political structure will implode. Financially, China is in very good shape and 2014 looks very good. They will suffer from their pollution problems for decades, that’s just the way it is.

• India: Though Indians themselves are in constant turmoil over their eco/political situation, they are making solid positive headway and their primary concerns must be moving toward the goals militarily that, they have set for themselves. Alliances with countries bordering the South China sea, respect from China along the norther frontier and overwhelming military capability to cope with Pakistan. These kind of goals cost massive amounts of money, but in 2014 India will keep up the pace. Their new French fighter aircraft will go into service, their second carrier will be under construction and their defensive missile system will be fully operational.
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• South and Central America: This coming year is a good year to be South American. Brazil and Argentina are among the best places in the world to invest while the American pull back in countries where they have formerly been so dominate will automatically result in economic and political growth.
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• The United States of America: Perhaps as high as 5% growth is possible in 2014, but the economy is a house of cards. From coast to coast their cities and state governments are either broke or nearly so. The stupidity of thinking you can keep taxes low, or cut them and still have viable governments, is so obviously flawed, that natural consequences will be the result and Detroit will be joined by perhaps a dozen cities this coming year going bankrupt and depression like conditions will prevail in at least four states.
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• Canada: The Canadian economy is mostly hot air and on this last bone chilling day of the year, it would have to be described as “not so hot.” The problem in Canada is at the core of conservative thought. We now have the lowest corporate taxes in the developed world and as you can see, it is not attracting business nor investment, the only result is to line the pockets of the very very rich. Under the present government, money has flowed steadily to the corporate sector and government services have declined, all the while the government tells us that they will balance the budget in 2015. So what, they have seen the deficit in 2013 grow, not decline and in 2014, more of the same. No balanced budget and even less revenue from the tax sucking government supported private sector. But the loonie which is the lowest it has been in a long time is going to shine itself up and climb back to about the 98¢ level by mid February.

• Provincial revenues all across the country are not working, with Quebec and Ontario leading the country in poor performance. Resource revenue in Newfoundland, Saskatchewan and Alberta are marginal at best for indeed, here in Saskatchewan we have discovered through the work of the auditor, that our provincial government is running a deficit, but claims a balanced budget by cooking the books. Alberta is in a tight spot and B.C. doing as poorly as Ontario. Saskatchewan’s dependence upon potash revenue is understandable and not a crisis. The Russian cut rate price that has depressed the market is not sustainable and by fall of 2014 potash prices will return to normal.

• Budget season 2014 will not be a jolly time as we learn of the poor management, and governments across the board, are unwilling to dig into the tax payer to straighten things up. But, corporations will continue to enjoy a free tax payer supported ride to bigger profits.

• Oil: Thanks to the Harper government, the more than abundant oil supplies of Alberta and Saskatchewan are not bringing in the revenue they should. By clobbering Canada’s environmental protection and disregarding the world’s concerns, pipelines that should have been built two years ago would be pumping revenue into the economy in 2014, but they were not built and that revenue is reduce dramatically.
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  Oil prices internationally for 2014 will be solid at that $107 mark due to good demand from Asia. Alberta and Saskatchewan oil, because of transportation issues, will bring only $65 in real terms.
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• Food: 2014 does not look like a time for any major food crisis other than in Africa where complex compounded issues reduce production and there will be continued demand for aid to much of the whole continent. Commodity prices in 2014 should continue at the present level as they are dependent upon stable climatic conditions. There is an expected spike in grain prices in the spring.

• The middle East: Still the world’s number one powder keg, but tension in the South China Sea is making the world’s military planners shift their priorities and their budgets.
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• Egypt: The return to military power in Egypt was no surprise, just as the continuation of military power for this coming year will be the norm. Though there is no ideological reason, only political expediency, the champion of democracy, the United States of America, will continue to pour money and support into Egypt, to prop up the military dictatorship, its what they do.
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• Israel / Palestine: John Kerry’s valiant attempt to further the peace process appears to have failed and that is not a surprise. In 2014 Israeli brutalization of Gaza will be largely ignored by the world press and though there will be protests by Arab countries, the West Bank is now effectively being absorbed by Israel.

• The situation in Syria is not going to be resolved this year and this will mean incursions into southern Lebennon. This can not be avoided. Israeli forces could conceivably get to the south side of Beruit before withdrawing in April.
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• Syria: The almost stalemate, is simply the result of the lack of any kind of cohesion within those forces opposing the Assad government. Even if Assad was inclined to launch peace talks, or a cease fire, with whom would he make such an arrangement. Another year of non-stop civil war in Syria.
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• Turkey: Those minor riots in November are a clear sign that Turkey has a problem not unlike other Arab countries. The young people of the country feel that they are not included and the world is passing them by. Though we will not likely hear about it, the leadership of Turkey is savvy enough to do something about it and expect changes this coming year in a move to modernize the country.
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• Iraq: As predicted last year Iraq now is in the midst of a continuing civil war. There is no way out of it. Saddam Hussein, as a dictator, forged, using outrageous force, to inflict peace on the diverse people of Iraq, without a similar strong man, the solution is the division of the country into three independent states; Kurds, Sunni and Shia and that is not going to happen this year, even in the next ten years.
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• Afghanistan: By summer the foreign presence will end. American, British and NATO forces will have left and the country can go back to being its regular chaotic self rather then its present chaotic self. No change, if you are an Afghan, drug money, corruption and ammunition are all that matter.
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• Pakistan: That American support money is about all that keeps their government in power, but in a country which can not even keep the lights running, the end is coming. It does not seem possible that Pakistan can make it through until this time next year. The northwestern tribal states are going to be in open revolt, the Kashmir continues to bottle up huge numbers of armed forces and equipment, and Karachi is ungovernable. At least one coup should be the order of things this spring and were the Americans to cut back on the money, civil war would result.
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• The Gulf States: FIFA is holding their world cup in this part of the world and there are many reasons to not be amused by the way things are done. The treatment of foreign workers is slavery and the outrageous wealth, beside outrageous poverty, make these states the best place for civil unrest in 2014. When it happens in late March, the Saudis will bring in support forces to extinguish the trouble.

• Lybia: A failed state with three distinctive areas, Benghazi, Tripoli and the south. After more clashes and economic problems, talks will begin in the fall in a move to bring order to a place of disorder. No resolution in 2014, but steps toward a negotiated devolution of the country.
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• Saudi Arabia: Arming themselves to the rooftops of their warehouses. Missiles, war planes, armoured vehicles and definite plans to acquire nuclear weapons. The house of Saudi is getting ready for a war in a few years times, but in the mean time, the war chest grows.
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• Iran: The move by the new leadership this year was one of the best things in 2013. Tensions around the gulf have eased and the Americans have saved themselves enormous hardship by avoiding a war with Persia. Meanwhile, Israel is pissed. It is not a viable possibility for Israel to mount an effective attack on Iran to stop it’s nuclear program and the move by the new leadership, to buy themselves time, has worked. They say they are not but they are working on a nuclear weapons arsenal.
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• North Korea: The uncle of the supreme one was killed, his former mistress and her band were killed and the next in line for a purge, is the wife of the supreme one. The North Korean forces have been warned to be ready for war at a minutes notice and if the dictator sobers up, peace might break out. Until then, don’t take your eyes off Korea, because the South is ready and both Japan and the United States navy are ready. What are the odds of a clash? 100% chance of minor nastiness, but a war is not a viable alternative. Without Chinese backing, no North Korean adventure can occur and China has more than enough to do with the trouble it has stirred up in the South China Sea.
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• Vietnam: An ally of India as Hanoi seeks out and is finding support, to deal with the growing aggression of the Chinese.

• China: The flash point in the South China sea over the uninhabited islands held by Japan, is really just a ploy to assert themselves in the whole region. They need the resources and they also need the resistance to give themselves the motivation to continue their massive arms build up. They are developing an offensive airforce and a deep sea navy. They need to have a presence in the waters around Africa if they want to continue to exploit the area and they need at least two carriers. The first one is just a training vehicle and really not operational, but their four huge new hovercraft landing crafts, two from the Ukraine and two built at Guangdong are the real thing and they are to back up their South China Sea strategy. This strategy is deeply troubling to the United States, forcing them to redeploy their military allotments around the globe, but for China, the need is simple, lay claims to the resources nearby and be prepared to back up your claims. No actual fighting with Japan is expected this year, just posturing.

• Japan: The Chinese threat is just that, a threat, but the need to be ready is real and costly. On the other hand, the issues for Japan are tough to deal with, the radiation at the damaged nuclear power plant are going to be a threat all of this coming year and beyond. The second issue is building up their forces while muting that process for public relations reasons.
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• The United States of America: When you are broke, it is pretty hard to be a world leader, but the United States is holding their chin up, when in fact they are remarkably impotent at this time. Their airforce is almost entirely on paper, they are short of pilots and their big move toward drones, is not moving forward because of financial constraints. They have refocused on Asia, while still dumping massive amounts of money on the middle east, all of which is a waste of money to their objectives. The deep sea navy is functional, but those eleven carriers are now sitting ducks in today’s war scenario. Gone are the days of the American empire, only the Americans have yet to realize their situation.

• Federal Canadian: There is one burning question, will Harper, seeing defeat in 2015 written on the wall, will he step down and turn his party over to a new leader? No! It is his party, he made it and will destroy it, without him there is no party and with him there can be no victory. In 2014 Canada’s future is going to take shape. The new leader of the opposition will be Thomas Montclair and he will make this a good country, he will contribute to the election victory in October 2015 of Liberal prime minister Justin Trudeau who will campaign all of the time until then, with no solutions and no policies, but instead, he will campaign on a promise to restore parliamentary democracy and public response to Canadian’s needs. That’s the future, no Jason Kenny and the mean spirits who believe that they are not responsible for feeding their neighbour’s kids, a Canada that has always been, will emerge once more in 2014 and it will be a celebration of the departure of the dumb mean bunch.

• Quebec: Separatism in Quebec is just a past memory, as the struggle in the province is to find some way out of the culture of gangland corruption and political patronage. The minority government will continue through the year and the 2014 budget will continue to pursue a distinctly Quebec way of doing things.

• Ontario: 2014 in Ontario must attack the sagging economy. To do that, they will have to fight, openly and unsuccessfully, against the present federal government. Alas, another tough year to be looking for a job in Ontario.
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• British Columbia: Now Premier Clark is firmly in power, it is time to do something other then bask in her victory. B.C. has to raise taxes, it is as simple as that and there will be moaning when the budget is presented.

• Federal Liberal Party of Canada: This year 2014 it will up to Ralph Goodale to hold the line in parliament while Montclair scores points. The leader Trudeau, will be on the road, coast to coast, day after day, putting together a political machine that will have the money and the organization, to make the election campaign a breeze.
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• Federal Cabinet: What cabinet? No one in a cabinet post has any power whatsoever and it is silly to even bother quoting or paying attention to any of them.
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• American politics: mean spirited and cruel, that is how we can characterize what passes for American politics and in November, the voters will not punish the tea-party idiots, nor will they remove the republicans, a deadlock and status quo is all that can be expected, sprinkled with more racial mud. The culture of America is at this point beyond civil and unworthy of polite discussion.

• It is all over for TV as we know it. Though there will still be networks and cable distribution, they are all sunset stuff. Internet TV is already reaching the tipping point and more and more people will cut the cable. Mr. Rogers and his big deal with the NHL will realize shortly that he has bought a dead horse.

• The next big thing in technology is not the wearable computer, or computer devise, but the iPad. Though other tablets are doing fine on the market, the iPad is the show and in 2014, with a larger format version, it will replace the laptop and continue to be the next big thing. The reason is simple. It works, its better, and once you begin depending upon it, you will be unable to get along without it.
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• 2014 is going to see the gradual end of the use of the term “cancer”. It just is no longer a useful means to describe the wide range of medical diseases that are currently grouped under the term. More and more is being brought into the light, that distinguishes the variations in run away cellular development and how to arrest that development to preserve the whole life form..
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• Riders go to the Grey Cup in 2014 and sadly lose despite an outstanding season.
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• The Olympics will be on CBC in February and Canadians will be watching, there won’t be much time for anything else. As for medals, we should do okay.