India and Pakistan
Doomsday Scenario
This morning listening to the news I realised that India and Pakistan are unfriendly toward one another and so it occurred to me that there must be a way this thing will play out. The future is not for us to know and that is a fortunate thing, but what will happened is composed of a collection of circumstances based on the present. If we make a few presumptions, it is possible to construct possible outcomes, be they fantasy, or based on some logic. The following article is pure speculation, a possible scenario, but not since 1962 and the Cuban missile crisis has this planet faced such imminent and wholesale loss of human life and it would seem almost irresponsible for us not to recognise the danger huge numbers of our fellow humans face right this minute. As always, I welcome your comments and response to this or any article you read in Ensign.
Ten lousy nukes, albeit underground, that is just not the way things should be. Can
you image what can, and very likely will take place. The MAD atmosphere
of the cold war was in effect because both the Soviet Bloc and the
NATO alliance had their collective awareness about them. The Soviets
were not a single country with a monolithic leadership, nor was NATO, both had a
military culture and situation sense that produced the outstanding era of peace,
because each was staring the other down with Mutually Assured Destruction
. The Indian and Pakistani leadership is colossal confused. The folks in Islamabad
are religious fanatics and barely able to contain their various factions while India
is a hopeless mess. I was amazed today to hear that the Indian government was in
pandemonium over Pakistan's five hot crackers, one wonders what the did they think
would happen when they set off their little thermo-nukes?
Be is resolved : consider downwind fallout trajectories
and what sort of measures we need to take to protect ourselves from the waste that
will be sent into the atmosphere when they figure out how to push the T-minus zero
button. The Indians will be surprised when the Pakistanis retaliate, or will the
folks in Islamabad just go for a preemptive strike.
In the early seventies I worked for three years in Weekes with my good friend Paul
Madiratta. Paul's folks lived up near Lucknow and when things went to hell in hand
basket in 1948 Paul's father and mother gathered him up with what they could carry
in their arms and they made it to an open gondola rail car with thousands of others
and were hauled through the rioting and uncontrolled situations at Lehore all the
way to Delhi. Paul remembers the train stopping and people scurrying off the gondola
cars to get a container of water from a well and the image that remains forever with
him was the blood on a post by the well and the smell of death in the air. When they
arrived in Delhi his family made their home and still live in, a large house abandoned
by their Islamic equivalents who had to flee North West as his family were making
their way the opposite direction. Such is the legacy of Kim's India and such is the
background for those two peoples who now have working thermonuclear weapons.
It is important to remember the weapons are fusion reaction, plutonium based devices
with tritium triggers. These bloody things can be as small as a pair of 7-11 big
gulp containers glued together and pack an explosive capability of less then Hiroshima
to many times greater. But they are dirty, there is no way around this, a fusion
reaction is a filthy thing and that is that.
Strange to be writing about this, terms and concepts that we were all familiar with
in the cold war but retired, only until now, to be dusted off as the world faces
this impending catastrophe. I can not be positive about the situation, there is no
history to support a positive solution to India and Pakistan situation.
The Indian weapons appear to be indigenously created and it is likely that production
of operational devices will be in its formative stage. Though one can imagine that
they will have some ready for use, the arsenal will not be large or diverse. India
relies upon its former Soviet built aircraft for ordinance delivery and so the devises
will be configured as "bombs".
Pakistan on the other hand is likely to have adapted or modified former soviet "tactical"
devices. The Soviets had massive quantities of field weapons designed for delivery
by small tactical missiles similar to the American Pershing or artillery warheads.
In either case these small dirty battlefield weapons were available in huge numbers
and would make an easy starting place to produce a ready supply for a third world
nuclear arsenal. The interesting fact that Pakistan has developed through modification
of a Chinese rocket, a missile delivery capability, means that Pakistan quite likely
removed five warheads from inventory for its demonstration "test" firing.
The assumption here is that Pakistan's arsenal is either operational or the flip
of a switch away from that level of readiness.
Therefore, if any of the above conjectures are true, it would make good sense for
Pakistan to launch a preemptive tactical strike against India as soon as it can be
ready for such an attack. Days will be super critical in this process because if
Pakistan is close to being ready, then they would be strategically correct in attacking
with a first strike to destroy India's arming process. Since India will be depending
upon aircraft for delivery. Pakistani missiles would be effective against air bases,
and all possible weapons development and assembly plants. The small nature of the
Pakistani weapons would curtail massive civilian deaths, although fallout from the
attacks would be significant in such a highly congested populated area, the collateral
fatalities and casualties would be acceptable for world public opinion purposes.
Since India and Pakistan are not strategically important to any part of the developed
world, no one is going to exert any undue pressure to prevent this scenario, other
then mouth platitudes and similar posturing as we have seen Clinton already carry
out. The loan and financial sanctions against Pakistan are as severe as would be
if they go for an all out attack on their neighbour, so they have nothing to loose.
If they act quickly, they will prevent India from reaching the point where it can
retaliate and bring similar destruction to Pakistan. However, the possibility exists
that because of India's extreme size, aviation elements and some primitive early
developed weapons may be available for a counter strike and Pakistan would have to
weigh the odds of this happening. It is likely, they would consider this an acceptable
risk factor because by late July the Indian arsenal would be to the point of balance
in numbers, but in terms of yield should be significantly more prodigious then the
stock pile held by Pakistan.
Horrific to contemplate this scheme, but if the premise is true that Pakistan does
have tactical serviceable weapons, they would be inclined to use them, rather then
utilise their existence as a deterrent. The Soviet designed weapons had a very finite
life span. For reasons of physics, they do not remain forever operational but their
functionality degrades with about five to eight years to the point where a clean
ignition becomes problematic and a large number of warheads would either "fizzle"
(low yield, partial fusion reaction) or fail to react at all. Therefore, these weapons
may work now, but in the future their potential will diminish.
Pakistan does have the capability of producing its own devices, but because it has
historically tended to barter or buy what it needs, I am inclined to think that it
did not produce the major components itself. The triggers and design components would
need to be obtained. It is even conceivable that the US CIA has been involved with
Pakistan in assisting in acquisition, aiming for assisting the Pakistanis to have
a parallel deterrents to both Iran and India. Keep in mind that the CIA developed
extensive links to the Pakistani military during the Afghan conflict as US funnelled
equipment through Pakistan to the Mujahadin some of that equipment was very state
of the air including large numbers of "Stingers"(IR fire and forget shoulder
to air missiles).
Prevailing winds over India blow into the East Indian Ocean toward Indonesia but
the Pacific Currents sweep that area's material straight East along the route of
El Nemo then spilling into a North and South trend at the Galapagos. Weather systems
for Southern United states are generated in this area and fallout could easily reach
as far North as Montana and Toronto. However, this fallout would be low grade because
of the vast distance and unless really a lot of detonations take place the levels
of strontium and other radio-active isotopes would migrate well above background
levels, but toxicity should not rise above the levels experienced during atmospheric
testing in the 60s.
The ramifications of such a conflict are more difficult to predict. Humanitarian
aid to war ravaged India is predictable, but, so is the prospect of a land war as
Indian forces retaliate. Pakistan's arsenal will have its limit perhaps fifty units
more or less so India could commit land forces to battle however, the shock effect
of Pakistan's strike on India would likely cause an Indian political implosion. Should
any of the Nehru/Ghandi family survive they would be placed in power as a virtual
monarchy. The inclination of this family would be to immediately begin negotiations
to conclude any further conflict.
Though there were would be world condemnation of Pakistan, its position in the Arab
world would move it well up the ladder and its economy would be stabilised and supported
by the Oil based Arab countries.
The aftermath of the two week nuclear war of 98 would be close to a decade or more
in India as fall out deaths would reach a maximum in 2018. Actual death tolls from
the 98 conflict should be well under a million civilian dead with about three times
that in injured, assuming Pakistan confined their attacks to military targets and
were able to do the job with 15 weapons. However, if they chose to target Delhi the
casualty figures for that one attack would exceed all others combined.
And this has been the Un-news for today.
Timothy W. Shire
For solid scholarly research on this topic check out the Berkeley
site.